ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 120933 
SPC MCD 120933 
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-121100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0050
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024

Areas affected...Northern LA...Southeast AR...Southwest
TN...central/northern MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

Valid 120933Z - 121100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Tornado Watch issuance is likely by 4 AM CST, as storms
begin to approach the region from the west.

DISCUSSION...As a powerful mid/upper-level shortwave trough moves
across the southern Plains early this morning, ongoing convection
near the ArkLaTex region is expected to accelerate eastward. A
surface cyclone is expected to consolidate later this morning near
the ArkLaMiss area and then rapidly intensify as a 100+ kt midlevel
jet impinges upon the region. As this occurs, 60s F dewpoints are
expected to advance as far as northern MS, accompanied by an
increase in MLCAPE to near 500 J/kg in areas that are currently
rather cool/stable. 

While there will be some tendency for convection to eventually
outpace low-level moisture return, organized convection is expected
to reach parts of northern/central MS and perhaps southwest TN later
this morning. Low-level flow/shear is already strong (as noted on
regional VWPs), and a further increase is expected with time as 1-3
km AGL flow strengthens into the 60-80 kt range. The fast-moving
convective line within this favorable kinematic environment will
pose a threat for severe gusts (potentially in excess of 65 kt) and
some potential for line-embedded tornadoes.  

With upstream WW 9 scheduled to expire at 4 AM CST, new tornado
watch issuance across the region is likely soon.

..Dean/Edwards.. 01/12/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   31979310 33799143 34909073 35199038 35308906 35078833
            34808823 34278826 33778834 32588856 32258973 32109217
            31979310 

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