ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 142049 
SPC MCD 142049 
NYZ000-150045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0064
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024

Areas affected...Upstate New York

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 142049Z - 150045Z

SUMMARY...The onset of heavy snowfall rates up to (and possibly
exceeding) two inches per hour is anticipated in the next few hours
for the northeast shore of Lake Ontario. A heavy lake-effect snow
band emanating off Lake Erie should continue into the early evening.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar trends over the past hour have shown the
development of a more persistent lake-effect snow band in the
Watertown, NY vicinity. Additionally, low-level confluence over Lake
Ontario may be increasing based on trends in the shallow convective
streaks in GOES visible imagery. High-res model guidance has hinted
in the development of a more persistent lake-effect band beginning
during the 21-00 UTC period over the past several model runs. The
aforementioned observed trends lend confidence to this forecast and
suggest the onset may be closer to the 21-23 UTC period. Upstream,
lake-effect bands coming off of Lake Erie have resulted in snowfall
rates up to 2 in/hour. Given similar thermodynamic profiles aloft
and warmer water temperatures (6 C vs. 4 C), similar, if not higher,
snowfall rates are expected. 

To the southwest, a persistent lake-effect band to the south of
Buffalo, NY is expected to persist into the evening hours. As
mentioned, snowfall rates up to 2 in/hour have been observed, and
strong low-level confluence over Lake Erie is noted in recent
surface observations. Guidance hints at a gradual weakening of this
band after the 00 UTC time frame.

..Moore.. 01/14/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON   43837636 44047626 44267527 44277493 44157463 44057453
            43777450 43587463 43497483 43557597 43627624 43737632
            43837636 

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