ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 150048 
SPC MCD 150048 
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-150545-

Mesoscale Discussion 0066
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024

Areas affected...East TX...northwest LA...southern AR...and northern
MS

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

Valid 150048Z - 150545Z

SUMMARY...An increase in winter mixed precipitation is expected from
portions of east TX east-northeastward into northern MS over the
next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Over the next few hours, a band of low-level
frontogenesis extending from northeast TX through southern AR into
northern MS is expected to strengthen in response to increasing
low-level confluence. Along/south of this feature, the ascending
branch of the frontogenetic circulation and steady low-level warm
advection should support an increase in precipitation over the next
few hours. Radar echoes are gradually increasing across this
corridor amid cooling cloud tops. 

Forecast soundings generally depict a 2-4 deg C warm nose just below
850 mb atop a substantial sub-freezing layer (surface temperatures
in the upper teens to lower/middle 20s). These profiles should
support a mix of sleet and freezing rain across much of the area,
with the primary precipitation type expected to transition to sleet
given an ample low-level sub-freezing layer and nocturnally cooling
surface temperatures. The one exception may be over the southern
portions of the discussion area (east-central TX into western LA),
where a 4-6 deg C warm nose atop a shallower sub-freezing layer may
favor increasing hydrometeor melting and freezing rain.
Nevertheless, the potential for impacts from the mixed winter
precipitation should gradually increase in the 02-06Z time frame.

..Weinman.. 01/15/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON   30979415 30739472 30989525 31289558 32249571 32979551
            33579493 33939418 34319227 34729040 34898949 34918850
            34768829 34338823 34068862 33528961 32719140 31969268
            30979415 

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