ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 240404 
SPC MCD 240404 
TXZ000-240600-

Mesoscale Discussion 0084
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1004 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024

Areas affected...Parts of South TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 240404Z - 240600Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible
overnight, primarily in the form of hail from 0.75-1.25 inches and
wind from 40-60 mph.

DISCUSSION...An uptick in thunderstorm coverage has occurred along
and to the north of a wavy surface front from Deep South TX into
southeast TX. The bulk of stronger mid-level flow has been confined
to the cool side of the front per DFX and EWX VWP data, with
pronounced weakness in the 1-3 km AGL hodograph in the CRP VWP. As
such, along the northern gradient of modest MLCAPE amid moderate
mid-level lapse rates, this setup will probably foster occasional
mid-level updraft rotation. Marginally severe hail and locally
strong gusts will likely be the main threats. A longer-duration
supercell could evolve near the front along the northern fringe of
mid to upper 60s surface dew points, being supported by relatively
stronger low-level shear over southeast TX per the HGX VWP. Should
this conditionally occur, a brief tornado will be possible.

..Grams/Thompson.. 01/24/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   29389755 30049655 30329597 30449556 30499521 30379483
            29919488 29599500 29079562 28679650 28209773 27939844
            27799914 27789953 28049974 28489979 28689964 29389755 

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