ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 241742 
SPC MCD 241742 
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-242015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0087
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024

Areas affected...southeast MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 241742Z - 242015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated risk for a damaging gust or two and a brief
tornado will focus over southeast MS near the I-59 corridor through
2pm CST.

DISCUSSION...Midday visible satellite/radar mosaic shows dense cloud
cover over the central Gulf Coast and a squall line from southeast
LA northeastward into east-central MS.  The cloud canopy has limited
heating but slow destabilization is occurring over southeast MS as
temperatures rise into the upper 60s to lower 70s from the mid 60s
earlier this morning.  Additionally, surface observations near
Hattiesburg have shown dewpoints rising from the mid 60s to the
upper 60s during the past few hours and thereby contributing to weak
surface-based instability developing ahead of the squall line. 
Coincident with the increase in buoyancy has been a slow but gradual
intensification of the convective line (i.e., echo tops, surges and
inflections becoming more prevalent).  Given the general parallel
character of the deep-shear vector to the squall line/larger-scale
gust front orientation, it seems likely that any appreciable threat
for strong to locally severe storm activity will occur with portions
of the line becoming slightly more orthogonal with respect to the
deep-shear vector and gust front.  A couple of damaging gusts and
perhaps a brief tornado may occur as the airmass continues to slowly
become more favorable these thunderstorm hazards over the next few
hours.

..Smith/Guyer.. 01/24/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   32258830 30748964 30688998 30839019 31269011 32428896
            32568865 32518837 32258830 

NNNN