ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 041145 
SPC MCD 041145 
FLZ000-041245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0104
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0545 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024

Areas affected...portions of south FL and the FL Keys

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 041145Z - 041245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe-thunderstorm potential will increase through early
morning as a line of convection develops eastward toward the
southwest FL coast and the Keys. Isolated damaging gusts and a
couple of tornadoes are possible. A watch will likely be needed by
13z.

DISCUSSION...A line of convection associated with an eastward-
developing MCS over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will approach the
southwest FL coast and the Keys over the next few hours.
Boundary-layer dewpoints remain modest, in the upper 50s to low 60s
F. Only minor increases in surface dewpoints are expected before
convection begins moving across the southern Peninsula. Rather
modest moisture and poor low-level lapse rates will limit
instability, with generally less than 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE expected.

Nevertheless, 0-6 km bulk effective shear values around 35-45 kt
will support organized convection. Regional VWP data indicate
somewhat enlarged and curved low-level hodographs becoming elongated
above 2-3 km. This should support at least transient strong to
severe storms posing a risk for damaging gusts within the convective
line. Although low-level moisture/thermodynamics are forecast to
remain weak, favorable shear may still be sufficient for a couple of
tornadoes, especially over the Keys or the far south Peninsula where
surface dewpoints may approach 63-65 F through late morning.

..Leitman/Edwards.. 02/04/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...

LAT...LON   27078258 26958043 26447999 25288019 24798053 24428125
            24388192 24588229 26358270 26898273 27078258 

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