ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 051330 
SPC MCD 051330 
FLZ000-051530-

Mesoscale Discussion 0111
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 AM CST Mon Feb 05 2024

Areas affected...Portions of the FL Keys and extreme southern
mainland FL.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 051330Z - 051530Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong/damaging gusts, hail near severe limits,
and conditional/brief tornado potential may occur with a band of
thunderstorms moving up the Keys and brushing the southernmost
mainland.

DISCUSSION...At 1315Z, the primary band of thunderstorms extended
from EYW to Cape Sable, along and south of an outflow boundary from
earlier convection that was analyzed over northern portions of FL
Bay and eastward across the Straits just southeast of HST.  This
activity occasionally has had an embedded supercell over open water,
and has produced several reports of small hail, as well as
strong/subsevere gusts around Key West (42 kt at EYW and 41 kt at
NQX).  While the predominant mode should remain quasi-linear, an
additional/isolated supercell or bowing segment may develop within
the band as it proceeds eastward over the remainder of FL Bay, the
middle/upper Keys, and southern Miami-Dade County.

The outflow boundary should drift northward amid modest ambient flow
(generally 5-10-kt surface winds), but also, may maximize low-level
shear/vorticity locally.  The air mass to its north remains
unfavorable, per modified 12Z MFL RAOB, but the modified/proximity
KEY sounding showed a layer of steep low/middle-level lapse rates
and greater moisture content that has supported the activity then
not far to its north through southwest.  Veering of flow just above
the surface limits hodograph size somewhat; however, 100-200 J/kg
effective SRH and 40-50-kt effective-shear magnitudes still have
been evident along and south of the boundary.

..Edwards.. 02/05/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...

LAT...LON   25488086 25598029 25518013 25058039 24738093 24568151
            24558170 24738163 24848143 24848121 24788110 24898084
            25028060 25188049 25118068 25168090 25488086 

NNNN