ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 092049 
SPC MCD 092049 
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-092315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0115
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CST Fri Feb 09 2024

Areas affected...Parts of northeast TX...southeast
OK...central/southern AR...Far northwest LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 092049Z - 092315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms may develop by late
afternoon. Hail will likely be the primary threat with these storms,
but locally damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado cannot be ruled
out.

DISCUSSION...A cumulus field is gradually deepening across parts of
the ArkLaTex region this afternoon, beneath an extensive cirrus
shield emanating from the subtropical Pacific. A few lightning
flashes have been noted with a developing cell across far northeast
TX, with other attempts at convective initiation noted on regional
radar. Large-scale ascent is likely to remain subtle at best over
the next several hours within broad southwesterly flow aloft, but
continued filtered heating of a moist and weakly capped environment
may support widely scattered thunderstorm development by late
afternoon. 

Cold temperatures aloft (-16C to -18C at 500 mb) atop a relatively
moist boundary layer are supporting favorable buoyancy through
midlevels, though a notable temperature inversion near the base of
the subtropical jet near 400 mb will limit CAPE magnitudes (with
MLCAPE generally 500-1000 J/kg) and truncate updraft depths. Despite
the relatively low-topped nature of convection, effective shear of
35-45 kt may support some storm organization, and a few stronger
multicells and/or a marginal supercell or two could evolve with
time. Isolated instances of large hail would likely be the primary
initial threat with any organized storm, though isolated strong
gusts cannot be ruled out. A gradual increase in low-level shear/SRH
is expected from late afternoon into early evening, and could
support a brief tornado threat if a supercell can be sustained.

With the threat currently expected to be isolated and relatively
limited in magnitude, watch issuance is considered unlikely.

..Dean/Thompson.. 02/09/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   32299463 31669601 31859656 32359685 33179638 34509586
            35439483 35649294 35149122 34599110 33759163 33139281
            32609394 32299463 

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