ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 110240 SPC MCD 110240 TXZ000-110415- Mesoscale Discussion 0118 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0840 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Areas affected...Edwards Plateau vicinity Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 110240Z - 110415Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Intense thunderstorm development is expected later tonight. The primary threat is expected to be very large hail, though there will also be some threat for isolated severe gusts and possibly a tornado. Watch issuance is likely. DISCUSSION...A vigorous mid/upper-level low is moving eastward across southern NM this evening, with an attendant jet maximum moving across northern Mexico. A surface boundary has gradually sagged southward this evening across parts of south-central TX, but this boundary may tend to stall as a surface low develops along the front in response to the approaching upper low. Near and north of the boundary, low-level east-southeasterly flow continues to transport moisture into parts of the Edwards Plateau, beneath steep midlevel lapse rates (as noted on regional 00Z soundings). Intense thunderstorm development is expected later tonight, as large-scale ascent attendant to the upper low impinges upon an increasingly unstable environment, with MUCAPE expected to be in the 1000-1500 J/kg range at the time of initiation. Strong deep-layer shear will support organized storm structures, including the potential for supercells and perhaps some upscale growth with time. With steep midlevel lapse rates and relatively cold temperatures aloft, any sustained supercells will pose a threat of very large hail (potentially 2-2.5 inches in diameter). Storms are generally expected to remain somewhat elevated along/north of the surface boundary. However, any storm that can be sustained near the boundary and become surface-based could also pose a threat of a tornado, given favorable low-level shear/SRH. Any near-surface-based storm or stronger elevated cluster could also pose some threat for isolated severe gusts. Watch issuance is likely prior to 04Z. ..Dean/Hart.. 02/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 32020131 32250070 32260000 32219871 31139816 29779842 29429859 29119903 28989977 29080058 29420109 29770142 31000159 32020131 NNNN