ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 110556 
SPC MCD 110556 
TXZ000-110730-

Mesoscale Discussion 0120
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024

Areas affected...TX Big Country into the Edwards Plateau

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 15...

Valid 110556Z - 110730Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 15
continues.

SUMMARY...The large hail threat is expected to increase overnight as
storms move eastward.

DISCUSSION...Elevated convection erupted earlier this evening from
the western part of the Edwards Plateau into the TX Big Country, as
an upper low approaching from NM began to impinge on the western
portion of the primary instability axis. Increasing deep-layer shear
will be supportive of organized convection overnight as convection
moves eastward, and a few supercells may continue to evolve (like
recent development south of Abilene and west of San Angelo) out of
the ongoing elevated storm cluster overnight. MUCAPE increasing into
1000 J/kg and steep midlevel lapse rates will continue to support a
hail threat, with very large hail of 2-2.5 inches in diameter
possible with any stronger supercell. 

As long as storms remain semi-discrete and elevated, hail will be
the primary threat, with perhaps some localized strong gusts. If
convection can build into the southern portion of WW 15 closer to
the surface boundary, then the threat may increase for a
near-surface-based supercell, which would pose a conditional risk of
all severe hazards. That scenario remains very uncertain at this
time, however.

..Dean.. 02/11/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   30510217 31780056 32369941 32939903 32789829 32239821
            31209886 30120009 29780059 29660102 29660115 29730188
            29860225 30260237 30510217 

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