ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 120005 
SPC MCD 120005 
MSZ000-LAZ000-120130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0134
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0605 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024

Areas affected...Parts of LA into central/southern MS

Concerning...Tornado Watch 20...

Valid 120005Z - 120130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 20 continues.

SUMMARY...Large hail will continue to be the primary threat north of
an outflow boundary. Storm development remains possible near/south
of the boundary this evening, which would potentially pose a tornado
threat in addition to hail and damaging-wind potential. New watch
issuance is possible prior to the expiration of WW 20.

DISCUSSION...An outflow boundary extends from southwest LA into
southern MS early this evening. Ongoing convection is largely
elevated and focused north of the boundary, but MUCAPE of 500-1000
J/kg and strong deep-layer shear are supporting elevated supercell
potential, which will continue to pose a large hail threat through
much of the evening. 

The composite outflow continues to sag slowly southward, especially
in areas where convection is in close proximity to the boundary. In
the near term, this tendency will limit potential for surface-based
convection. However, increasing large-scale ascent attendant to an
approaching mid/upper-low over the southern Plains may allow for
increasing storm potential near/south of the boundary later this
evening. Strengthening low-level flow/shear would support some
tornado potential if surface-based convection can be sustained
across parts of southern LA/MS. 

With some severe threat likely to persist through much of the
evening, new watch issuance is possible prior to the 01Z expiration
of WW 20.

..Dean/Hart.. 02/12/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   30929317 31439221 32569035 32778987 32848916 32628885
            32218881 31848897 31408924 30918978 30739018 30589066
            30389131 30169227 30199293 30329356 30929317 

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