ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 120144 
SPC MCD 120144 
LAZ000-120315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0135
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024

Areas affected...Parts of central/southeast LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 120144Z - 120315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storms may increase in coverage later tonight, with at
least some threat for all severe hazards. Watch issuance is
possible.

DISCUSSION...A strong storm has recently developed just off of the
LA coast, which is now moving onshore. Relatively steep midlevel
lapse rates atop rich low-level moisture (as noted on the 00Z LCH
and LIX soundings) are supporting MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. This
instability in combination with strong effective shear (50+ kt) will
support supercell potential through the evening. 

Storm coverage in the short term may remain isolated, but as a
mid/upper-level low and attendant cold front approach from the west,
additional storm development will be possible later this evening.
Large hail and locally gusty winds will the primary initial threats.
Some tornado threat could also evolve with time, especially if any
sustained supercell can move into southeast LA, where sufficient
low-level shear/SRH will likely persist tonight. 

Watch issuance remains possible this evening, if a sustained
supercell threat appears imminent.

..Dean/Hart.. 02/12/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   29399297 30539239 30859144 30919093 30729056 30279033
            29799044 29429066 29199096 29199139 29229197 29259227
            29399297 

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