ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 121331 
SPC MCD 121331 
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-121600-

Mesoscale Discussion 0138
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0731 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024

Areas affected...western Florida Panhandle into parts of
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 121331Z - 121600Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The risk for severe thunderstorms, including supercells
with the potential to produce tornadoes, still seems likely to
increase inland of coastal areas.  However, an appreciable increase
in severe probabilities may not occur until closer to midday (10
AM-Noon CST), across the Tallahassee vicinity into southwestern
Georgia, between Albany and Valdosta.  A new Tornado Watch will
probably be needed at some point, though it remains uncertain if by
the scheduled expiration of Tornado Watch 22.

DISCUSSION...Stronger recent thunderstorm development is now focused
within a narrow plume of better pre-frontal low-level moisture
return off the Gulf of Mexico, across the western Florida Panhandle
into parts of southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia.  While
the boundary-layer across this region has yet to destabilize
appreciably, it appears that this will begin to change through
midday.  

It is not clear how much insolation and boundary-layer mixing will
contribute, but forecast soundings suggest that, as a surface
cyclone begins to deepen more rapidly across western Alabama,
low-level thermal and moisture advection will contribute to more
rapid modification beneath a cooling mid-level environment.  This
may not occur until later this morning through midday (16-18Z),
across the Tallahassee vicinity into southwestern Georgia between
Albany and Valdosta.  However, once it does, Rapid Refresh forecast
soundings suggest that this will coincide with enlarging,
clockwise-curved low-level hodographs and strengthening deep-layer
shear, supportive of supercells with potential to produce tornadoes,
in addition to severe hail and locally damaging wind gusts.

..Kerr/Guyer.. 02/12/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON   30818645 31908481 31698386 30808409 29558526 28728649
            28998731 29588715 30818645 

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