ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 131008 
SPC MCD 131008 
CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-131445-

Mesoscale Discussion 0140
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0408 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024

Areas affected...northern New Jersey...southeastern New York...Long
Island and southern Connecticut

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 131008Z - 131445Z

SUMMARY...Sustained heavy snow rates of 1-2+ inches per hour may
become focused across much of the Greater New York City Metropolitan
area by 8-11 AM EST.

DISCUSSION...Precipitation continues to develop east-northeastward
into and through much of the northern Mid Atlantic into southern New
England.  This includes moderate to occasionally heavy snow
developing on the northern periphery of the shield, but the
changeover to snow and snow rates have been hampered at least some
by boundary-layer temperatures initially above freezing, and a layer
between 850-700 mb with above freezing temperatures, as far north as
the northern Mid Atlantic vicinity.

Significant surface cyclogenesis does now appear underway
near/offshore of the Hampton Roads vicinity, with the rapid further
deepening of the cyclone forecast as it progresses
east-northeastward into the Atlantic through the day.  This will be
accompanied by southward advection of colder lower/mid-tropospheric
air into the the northern Mid Atlantic, and the latest Rapid Refresh
continues to indicate intensifying deep-layer frontogenesis in a
zone across the northern New Jersey/Long Island vicinity through mid
to late morning.  Beneath strengthening divergence between coupled
jet streaks aloft, models indicate that upward vertical motion will
become maximized within mid/upper levels, including a layer near and
just below 500 mb where temperatures are favorably cold to support
large dendritic ice crystal growth.

Forecast soundings suggest that saturating and sufficiently cold
profiles with precipitable water around .70 inches may focus
intensifying and heaviest snow across much of the Greater New York
City area through 13-16Z.  It appears that this probably will
include rates on the order of 1-2 inches per hour and occasionally
heavier.

..Kerr.. 02/13/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...

LAT...LON   40707315 40407438 40667473 41207396 41397229 40827216
            40707315 

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