ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 131327 
SPC MCD 131327 
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-131630-

Mesoscale Discussion 0141
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0727 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024

Areas affected...eastern Long Island through southeastern New
England

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 131327Z - 131630Z

SUMMARY...Heavy snow, including hourly rates increasing in excess of
2 inches,  appears likely to continue developing east-northeastward
across eastern Long Island through the Cape Cod vicinity through 10
AM-1 PM EST.

DISCUSSION...The rapidly deepening surface cyclone has shifted
offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast and is likely to continue
tracking east-northeastward to the south of the Long Island and Cape
Cod vicinities through midday.  Cooling cloud tops evident in recent
satellite imagery across southeastern Pennsylvania into the lower
Hudson Valley appear reflective of a strengthening zone of
mid/upper-level frontogenesis, which is forecast to continue to
develop east-northeastward to the north of the surface cyclone.  As
forcing for ascent within this zone becomes maximized within the
layer most conducive to large dendritic ice crystal growth
(temperatures around -15C), initially near or just below 500 mb in
forecast soundings before slowly lowering, it appears that heaviest
snow rates will shift across the eastern Long Island/Long Island
Sound through Cape Cod vicinities between 15-18Z.   With
precipitable water beginning to approach .8 inches, and lift
forecast to intensify further, particularly near Cape Cod, heaviest
sustained snow rates may increase in excess of 2 inches per hour.

..Kerr.. 02/13/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...

LAT...LON   41727233 42277016 41606965 41167121 40787264 41727233 

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