ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 150800 
SPC MCD 150800 
MIZ000-WIZ000-151200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0143
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024

Areas affected...southeastern Wisconsin into parts of southwestern
and south central lower Michigan

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 150800Z - 151200Z

SUMMARY...A period of moderate to heavy snow appears likely to
overspread the remainder of southern Wisconsin into southern lower
Michigan through 6-8 AM EST, possibly including a brief burst of
very heavy snow rates around or in excess of 2 inches per hour.

DISCUSSION...Rapidly cooling cloud tops in a small cluster
overspreading southern Wisconsin appears aided by forcing for ascent
beneath a focused area of intensifying upper divergence, between
coupled upper jets propagating into and across the Upper Midwest and
Great Lakes vicinity.  This appears to coincide with a short-lived
period of strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric frontogenesis, which
is forecast to shift across the remainder of southern Wisconsin into
portions of southern lower Michigan through 11-13Z. 

Although surface temperatures generally remain above freezing along
this corridor, the saturating column above is sub-freezing. 
Forecast soundings indicate that temperatures around -15 C are
focused near the 600 mb level, where the environment is most
conducive to large dendritic ice crystal growth.  In response to a
period of strengthening lift within this layer, snow rates appear to
be increasing.  Based on latest model output, it appears that this
may include a couple hour period of hourly rates in excess of 1
inch, in the presence of precipitable water increasing to around .5
inches.  Latest Rapid Refresh output suggest that a brief burst of
2+ inch per hour rates might not be out of the question.

..Kerr.. 02/15/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...GRR...MKX...

LAT...LON   43548874 43578479 43018361 42278478 42488595 42618785
            42738894 43548874 

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