ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 152313 
SPC MCD 152313 
VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-160315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0144
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0513 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2024

Areas affected...2 Eastern New York

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 152313Z - 160315Z

SUMMARY...A band of moderate to heavy snow across central New York
will likely spread east into eastern New York over the next few
hours.

DISCUSSION...Over the past 1-2 hours, a fairly well organized snow
band has become established over central NY state based on composite
reflectivity and water-vapor trends. Although recent CAMs have
depicted the evolution of this band, the overall intensity appears
to be stronger than initially suggested by CAM output when compared
to observed visibility reductions (1/2 to 1/4 mile from Syracuse to
Utica, NY) and regional web cams. Pockets of snowfall rates
approaching 1 inch/hour appear probable within the band based on
these observations, and should persist for the next 1-3 hours as the
band spreads across eastern NY. After around 02 UTC, the persistence
and intensity of this band becomes less certain as frontogenesis
within the 850-700 mb layer abates. However, persistent ascent
within the left-exit region of an approaching mid-level jet
overlapped with a broad warm frontal zone may allow for pockets of
moderate to heavy snowfall rates to persist after 02 UTC into the
New England region.

..Moore.. 02/15/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON   42117490 43647564 43897600 44147601 44447582 44987489
            44997380 44977349 44797330 44447328 42937323 42517335
            42177345 41887365 41647369 41527391 41427418 41477448
            41617462 41917477 42117490 

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