ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 082112 
SPC MCD 082112 
TXZ000-082315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0206
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0312 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024

Areas affected...Parts of north TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 082112Z - 082315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A couple strong storms are possible through late
afternoon, with an isolated hail threat.

DISCUSSION...A thunderstorm has recently developed near the
southwest Metroplex, with building cumulus noted along a cold front
that is moving southeastward across the region. Despite rather
modest low-level moisture, diurnal heating and relatively cool
midlevel temperatures are supporting MLCAPE of around 500 J/kg
immediately ahead of the front. Rather strong flow above 3 km AGL is
resulting in effective shear of 40+ kt, and a couple more organized
storms (including potential for a transient/marginal supercell) may
evolve out of developing convection. Weak buoyancy will tend to
limit the overall hail risk, but isolated instances of hail between
0.75-1.5 inches in diameter cannot be ruled out through late
afternoon. Relatively steep low-level lapse rates could support
outflow gusts of 50-60 mph if any stronger storms can be sustained. 

With the threat expected to remain rather limited in magnitude and
areal extent, watch issuance is unlikely.

..Dean/Smith.. 03/08/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...

LAT...LON   32139754 32649709 32819656 32819624 32399614 31969620
            31709627 31369644 31249681 31469747 31789755 32139754 

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