ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 131956 
SPC MCD 131956 
ILZ000-MOZ000-132230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0218
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Areas affected...Portions of east-central MO and west-central IL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 131956Z - 132230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...An increasing threat for mainly large hail will exist with
storms that should develop this afternoon. Watch issuance may be
needed.

DISCUSSION...Low-level moisture continues to advect northward along
a warm front across central/eastern MO, with surface dewpoints
generally increasing into the mid to upper 50s F. Recent visible
satellite imagery shows a cu field gradually deepening and becoming
more agitated over east-central MO in tandem with this returning
moisture. Eventual thunderstorm development seems probable by 21-22Z
(4-5 PM CDT) as parcels reach their convective temperature amid an
uncapped and moderately unstable airmass. The presence of around
1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE, with moderately steepened mid-level lapse
rates, will likely encourage robust updrafts. Although low/mid-level
flow remains fairly modest at the moment, sufficient deep-layer
shear of 30-35 kt should support updraft organization/rotation and
some supercell potential. The main severe risk appears to be large
hail with any thunderstorms that can develop and be sustained this
afternoon and early evening. But, some threat for strong to locally
damaging winds may also exist. Depending on convective trends, watch
issuance may be needed this afternoon.

..Gleason/Guyer.. 03/13/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   37789157 37979217 38479251 38979242 39449217 39539181
            39629153 39439018 39198943 38908926 38498929 38198967
            37959003 37819047 37789157 

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