ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 140153 
SPC MCD 140153 
MOZ000-KSZ000-140400-

Mesoscale Discussion 0224
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0853 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Areas affected...Northeast Kansas...Northwest Missouri

Concerning...Tornado Watch 37...

Valid 140153Z - 140400Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 37 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe storms, associated with large hail, wind damage and
perhaps a tornado or two, will continue across parts of northeast
Kansas and northwest Missouri. Hailstones over 2 inches in diameter
could occur with the more intense cores.

DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar imagery from Topeka
shows a cluster of severe storms over northeast Kansas, near and
around the vicinity of Manhattan, Kansas. Further east, a second
severe cluster is located near the Kansas City Metro. Both clusters
are associated with several intense supercells that are located near
an east-to-west warm front. These storms are likely producing large
to very large hail. According to RAP forecast soundings, the
environment in these areas is characterized by moderate instability
(MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg), 0-6 km shear of 45 to 50 knots and 700-500
mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This continue to be favorable for
supercells with large hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in
diameter will be possible with the more intense cores. In addition,
low-level shear has markedly increased over the last couple of hours
as the low-level jet has strengthened, with 0-3 km storm-relative
helicity near 350 m2/s2. This should continue to support a tornado
threat with the more dominant supercells, although a stabilizing
boundary-layer will lessen the tornado threat with time. Wind damage
will also be possible.

..Broyles.. 03/14/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   39679593 39779324 39549268 39149273 38919323 38819530
            38869654 39269684 39679593 

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