ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 141239 
SPC MCD 141239 
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-141445-

Mesoscale Discussion 0228
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Areas affected...East-central MO into central/southern IL and
western IN

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 39...40...

Valid 141239Z - 141445Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 39, 40
continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for damaging gusts and possibly a brief tornado
may spread eastward through the morning.

DISCUSSION...Radar trends and cooling cloud-top temperatures from IR
imagery suggest some increase in convective vigor across
east-central MO into adjacent western IL within the last hour, with
a 47 kt measured gust recently noted west of St. Louis. Some uptick
in storm organization remains possible later this morning, as
continued low-level moisture advection and modest diurnal heating
allow for some downstream destabilization within a favorably sheared
environment. Such an uptick would likely be accompanied by an
increase in damaging-wind potential, especially near/south of a warm
front draped from west-central IL into northwest IN. Strong
low-level shear/SRH (with 0-1 km SRH of greater than 250 m2/s2)
could also support a brief line-embedded tornado. 

With some potential for ongoing storms to intensify as they approach
western IN, and also build southward toward parts of the OH Valley,
additional watch issuance may be needed later this morning, though
the timing and areal extent of any new watch remain uncertain at
this time.

..Dean/Edwards.. 03/14/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   39849034 40648870 40998796 41028676 40358633 39588637
            39078646 38638650 38348674 38278734 38188875 38288979
            38289073 38339079 38549077 38759072 38969066 39849034 

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