ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 142036 
SPC MCD 142036 
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-142230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0236
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0336 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Areas affected...portions of Indiana and western Ohio and far
southern Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 142036Z - 142230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Afternoon satellite imagery shows rapid air mass recovery
is ongoing across parts of IN and western OH. New storm development
over north-central IL may expand eastward into IN and OH/MI, though
this is uncertain. Supercells with all hazards are possible and a
new WW is possible in the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...Across parts of IN and OH the air mass in the wake of
an early day MCS is rapidly recovering. With ample diurnal heating,
surface temperatures have warmed into the low 70s F with surface
dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s F. Several modified
outflow/differential heating boundaries are present supporting ample
mesoscale lift for storm initiation within the destabilizing air
mass. SPC mesoanalysis shows 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE has developed
with 50-60 kt of effective shear. Storm organization (should
development continue) into supercells or short bowing segments is
probable. Mid-level lapse rates of 7-8 C and the strong vertical
shear will favor large hail (especially with rotating updrafts),
damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes.

However, confidence in the development and the timing of robust
storm development is modest given the air mass resides in the cold
pool of the earlier MCS. Stable wave clouds and the relatively
limited depth of boundary-layer CU are noted over much of IN, while
more robust vertical development is confined to the differential
heating axis/modified outflow. Forecaster experience suggests storms
may struggle to become established initially with broad, albeit
weak, synoptic decent likely ongoing behind the former MCS. Still,
numerous CAM solutions and ongoing convection upstream over eastern
MO and IL suggests storm development is possible. Stronger, more
established convection over eastern MO may also move into
southern/central IN later this afternoon/evening. Given the
environment with expanding hodographs and favorable buoyancy this
evening, these storms would pose a risk for all hazards.

With confidence in the evolution in mind, convective trends are
being monitored for a possible watch of portions of IN and western
OH in the next couple of hours.

..Lyons/Goss.. 03/14/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...
ILX...

LAT...LON   38348725 38348746 38308772 38458773 39038760 40298756
            40768753 41478705 41748636 41868487 41758388 41718322
            41438297 41058298 40698319 39518477 38798636 38348725 

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