ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 142209 
SPC MCD 142209 
ILZ000-MOZ000-142345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0239
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0509 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Areas affected...Portions of east-central Missouri into
central/southern Illinois

Concerning...Tornado Watch 43...

Valid 142209Z - 142345Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 43 continues.

SUMMARY...The greatest risk for very large hail and tornadoes in the
next 1-2 hours will be in southern Illinois. Intense storms near the
cold front will eventually be overtaken by the front and undergo a
weakening trend.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of supercell storms continues east/southeast
of the St. Louis area. A secondary cluster is also ongoing near the
cold front in west-central/central Illinois. An area of locally
backed surface winds is evident in surface observations ahead of the
more southern cluster of supercells. Despite only modest low-level
shear, this area will pose the greatest risk for tornadoes in the
next hour or two. These storms will also pose a risk of 2-3 inch
hail.

Farther north near the cold front, the threat for tornadoes should
be less. Large/very-large hail will continue to be a threat given
favorable deep-layer shear and storm mode. With the cold front also
beginning to make southward progress, the duration of the severe
threat may be more short-lived farther north. Buoyancy will decrease
behind the front and is not expected to support strong/severe
elevated storms.

..Wendt.. 03/14/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   38029022 38279047 39079072 39379078 39829006 40228821
            39918770 38628794 38108902 38029022 

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