ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 142328 
SPC MCD 142328 
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-150130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0243
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0628 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Areas affected...Southeast Oklahoma...Far Southwest
Arkansas...Northeast Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 45...46...

Valid 142328Z - 150130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 45, 46
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms, associated with large hail
and wind damage, will continue this evening from southeast Oklahoma
into parts of northeast Texas. The threat should eventually affect
far southwest Arkansas.

DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from Fort Smith,
Arkansas shows several supercells and multiple short bowing segments
across southeast Oklahoma, with isolated storms developing across
northeast Texas. These storms are located ahead of a cold front in a
moist airmass, where the RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 1500 to
2500 J/kg range. In addition, a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates
exceeding 8 C/km is located across much of the area. This
thermodynamic environment combined with moderate deep-layer shear
will be favorable for supercells with large hail. The strongest of
storms may be capable of producing hailstones greater than 2 inches
in diameter. As cell coverage increases this evening, an organized
line segment with wind-damage potential could also develop.

..Broyles.. 03/14/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   31969581 32159534 32459480 33069428 33679406 34639404
            35039431 35229496 35219562 34939638 34609674 34189697
            33419724 32759727 32239708 31959648 31969581 

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