ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 210642 
SPC MCD 210642 
TXZ000-210845-

Mesoscale Discussion 0273
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

Areas affected...Middle TX Gulf Coast

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 210642Z - 210845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A couple supercells may develop over the Middle Texas Gulf
Coast, with more probable supercell development in the adjacent
offshore waters of the western Gulf through the pre-dawn hours.
Isolated large hail should be the primary threat over land.

DISCUSSION...Weak mid-level convection persists across parts of Deep
South TX within a corridor of modest warm theta-e advection. Bulk of
evening guidance suggest this activity will deepen into storms and
intensify during the next few hours by about 09Z. This appears to be
on-track per time-series of VWP data from BRO showing some increase
in 1-2 km flow over the past couple hours and the CRP VWP showing a
similar trend in the past 30 minutes. With upper 60s surface dew
points as far north as CRP, adequate buoyancy will be present once
storms initiate. The bulk of the development should occur near and
to the north of the modest surface-based instability plume, yielding
convection becoming increasingly elevated with northeast extent
along the coastal plain. Ample deep-layer shear and steep mid-level
lapse rates should support potential for a couple supercells capable
of large hail. The bulk of longer-lived, more intense supercells
should be confined off the coast from the Corpus Christi to
Matagorda Bay vicinity.

..Grams/Thompson.. 03/21/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...BRO...

LAT...LON   28849719 29169655 29209586 29089557 28949540 28599542
            27929661 27359705 27109746 27079795 27379810 28129791
            28849719 

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