ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 272022 SPC MCD 272022 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-272215- Mesoscale Discussion 0311 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Areas affected...northern FLORIDA Peninsula...southeastern Georgia...eastern South Carolina...far southern North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 272022Z - 272215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage will increase this afternoon with potential for instances of severe hail and wind. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development has begun in eastern Georgia near a surface boundary that extends from the Carolinas southward into the eastern Florida Panhandle. CAMs continue to suggest this thunderstorm activity will increase into the afternoon, with scattered thunderstorms expected across much of the region. Afternoon heating has been slow, given mid-to upper level cloud cover and slow eroding of stable air behind morning convection. Surface objective analysis indicates MLCIN has weakened with around 500 J/kg MLCAPE across South Carolina into Georgia ahead of the boundary. This trend is further confirmed by thunderstorm development on radar. Currently, deep layer shear is strongest across the northern Florida Peninsula into southern Georgia. As the front shifts eastward this afternoon, stronger mid-level flow will spread northward, with deep layer shear increasing to the north as a result. This will support potential for a few more robust thunderstorms with potential for damaging winds and large hail. Given the slow air mass recovery and potential for messy storm mode with multi-cell clusters, a watch is unlikely to be needed this afternoon. ..Thornton/Hart.. 03/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE... LAT...LON 31138337 32258262 32988215 34258099 35118004 35207994 35057892 34787854 34447836 34237827 34057827 33567853 33117900 32538007 32188051 31928076 31518105 31358147 31158197 30938228 30708268 30408289 30138320 30128368 30278377 31138337 NNNN