ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 011813 
SPC MCD 011813 
MOZ000-KSZ000-012015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0320
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024

Areas affected...Central/Eastern KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 011813Z - 012015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of large to very large (1" to 2.5")
hail are possible across central and eastern KS this afternoon. A
strong gust or two is also possible.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low over northeast KS
with a cold front extending southwestward from this low through
south-central KS. Low-level stability remains within much of the
region ahead of this front, where the surface conditions are
characterized by temperatures in the low/mid 70s and dewpoints in
the low 60s amid widespread cloud cover. Even so, steep mid-level
lapse rates are in place and the combination of broad warm-air
advection and ascent along the front is expected to result in
convective initiation within the next hour or two. 

Given the initially elevated and embedded storm character, a
somewhat messy storm mode is anticipated once initiation occurs.
Even so, deep-layer vertical shear is quite strong, with recent
mesoanalysis estimated 60 to 70 kt of 0-6 bulk shear. This shear is
sufficient for updraft organization within in mature, deep updrafts.
The presence of steep lapse rates will favor the development of
large to very large hail (i.e. 1" to 2.5") within these mature and
organized storms. Given the low-level stability and weak low-level
shear, the tornado potential for the next few hours should remain
low. However, further air mass destabilization and strengthening
low-level flow over time may allow these storms to trend more
surface based as they move eastward/northeast into MO, resulting in
an increase tornado threat.

..Mosier/Thompson.. 04/01/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   37849748 39019596 39189492 38849439 38289427 37739441
            37339466 37109498 36999567 37019691 37029750 37149833
            37849748 

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