ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 011855 
SPC MCD 011855 
OKZ000-TXZ000-012100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0322
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024

Areas affected...Much of OK and Northwest TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

Valid 011855Z - 012100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms are expected this afternoon from
northwest Texas across much of Oklahoma. Threat with these storms
will include very large hail (3"+), strong gusts (60-80 mph), and
tornadoes.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a triple point low about
20 miles west-northwest of END, with dryline extending southwestward
from this low through southwest OK and into southwest TX.
Thunderstorms have developed in the vicinity of this surface low,
amid persistent low-level convergence and warm-air advection. There
is still some low-level stability remaining within the air mass. As
such, this initial development is likely elevated, but steep
mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear are more
than sufficient for updraft organization. Large to very large (1" to
2.75") is possible with this activity.  

Continued low-level moisture advection and filtered heating will
likely lead to gradual air mass destabilization, with additional
storms developing later this afternoon along and ahead of the
dryline as the shortwave (and associated ascent) continues to lift
northeastward. This activity would likely be surface based and
capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail (3"+),
strong gusts (60-80 mph), and tornadoes. A Tornado Watch will be
issued soon to cover these potential hazards.

..Mosier/Thompson.. 04/01/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON   33209930 33420019 33930032 34989958 36599812 36969723
            36529563 34689682 33309774 33209930 

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