ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 020101 
SPC MCD 020101 
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-020230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0331
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0801 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024

Areas affected...portions of eastern Texas into southeastern
Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 020101Z - 020230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing across portions of
northeastern Texas into southeastern Oklahoma. Severe hail and wind
are the main threats, though a tornado cannot be ruled out. A WW
issuance is likely over the next hour or so.

DISCUSSION...A QLCS with embedded supercells is progressing across
the metroplex, with copious amounts of 2-3 inch hail reported with
the northernmost supercell. These storms are advancing eastward
across a buoyant warm sector, overspread by 50-70 kts of effective
bulk shear, so the severe threat is expected to persist with the
ongoing storms for several more hours. The 00Z FWD observed sounding
showed 9 C/km mid-level lapse rates and elongated hodographs. As
such, embedded supercells should continue east of the ongoing
watches with the potential for severe (50+ kt) gusts and large hail
(with some 1-2 inch stones possible). Since the storms will be
approaching the western extent of a low-level jet, a modest increase
in low-level shear may also support the development of a tornado or
two. A WW issuance will be needed soon to address the impending
severe threat.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 04/02/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   31489752 34509559 35359520 35509474 35209434 34359410
            33659408 32869445 32119524 31579619 31489752 

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