ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 020532 
SPC MCD 020532 
ARZ000-MOZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-020700-

Mesoscale Discussion 0337
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024

Areas affected...southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas and
northeast Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 70...

Valid 020532Z - 020700Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 70
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms may sporadically produce
hail and locally damaging gusts in the short term. Overall risk is
expected to diminish with time and eastward extent overnight.

DISCUSSION...A line of convection will continue to shift
east/northeast across parts of northwest AR the next few hours. More
isolated convection is expected with southward extent along an
eastward-advancing cold front across southeast OK into northeast TX
and southwest AR. Low-level shear has increased considerably tonight
across AR as is evident in KSRX and KLZK VWPs. This typically would
support organized severe convection. However, the thermodynamic
environment will be marginal for maintenance of robust convection.
Capping and increasing low-level inhibition will preclude
surface-based storms the remainder of the night. While sporadic
strong to severe storms may result in hail and locally strong gusts
in the short-term, the overall risk is expected to diminish with
time and eastward extent. As such, a new watch is not currently
expected downstream from WW 70. However a local temporal extension
may be needed.

..Leitman.. 04/02/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   35969276 33379374 33049422 32859511 32859570 32979631
            33379642 33999634 35319554 36349439 36499417 36509307
            35969276 

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