ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 021758 
SPC MCD 021758 
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-022000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0350
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024

Areas affected...Portions of central/northern Louisiana into parts
of southern/central Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 021758Z - 022000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Though uncertainty exists, a watch is possible for
portions of central/southern Mississippi depending on overall trends
in storm coverage and organization. Large hail and damaging winds
are the primary hazards.

DISCUSSION...Storms in central Louisiana have steadily deepened over
the past hour or two. These storms will continue northeastward into
a moist airmass where temperatures are in the low 80s F. Additional
storms are possible along the pre-frontal wind shift and later the
cold front. The observed 17Z JAN sounding showed a very modest
decrease in a warm layer at around 700 mb. Effective shear is
sufficient for a few organized updrafts. Additional cooling aloft as
the main synoptic trough approaches may also lead to some
intensification by late afternoon. While the need for a watch is
uncertain at this time, a watch for parts of central/southern
Mississippi is possible should trends in convective coverage and
organization warrant.

..Wendt/Thompson.. 04/02/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   31708930 31468978 31269050 31079193 31319260 31689257
            32079246 32409222 32789195 33339115 33669031 33518950
            33028885 32118890 31708930 

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