ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 090449 
SPC MCD 090449 
TXZ000-090615-

Mesoscale Discussion 0391
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024

Areas affected...Parts of north TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 93...

Valid 090449Z - 090615Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 93
continues.

SUMMARY...Very large hail (golfball to baseball size) remains
possible with an ongoing supercell cluster. A brief tornado cannot
be ruled out.

DISCUSSION...Several supercells are ongoing at 0445 UTC to the
west-northwest of the Metroplex, with multiple cells having produced
golfball or larger sized hail (up to 3 inches in diameter) within
the last hour. While some cell interactions/mergers have been noted
with the northernmost cells, the two right-moving supercells ongoing
west of Mineral Wells and north of Fort Worth may be able to move
east-northeastward with minimal interference in the short term. 

MLCAPE of around 2000 J/kg and effective shear of 45-55 kt will
continue to support supercell potential into the early overnight
hours, with very large hail (potentially 2-3 inches in diameter with
the strongest cells) as the primary threat, along with some risk for
localized severe gusts. Also, low-level flow has substantially
increased over the last 1-2 hours on the KFWS VWP, with 0-1 km SRH
increasing above 150 m2/s2. This could support a brief tornado
threat with the strongest right-moving cells, though relatively cool
near-surface conditions may mitigate this threat to some extent.

..Dean.. 04/09/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON   33359899 33639814 33679694 33399637 33109626 32919638
            32709657 32609701 32549747 32529802 32539848 32579908
            32679931 32979941 33099945 33359899 

NNNN