ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 120336 
SPC MCD 120336 
NCZ000-VAZ000-120600-

Mesoscale Discussion 0427
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1036 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Areas affected...Northeast North Carolina...Southeast Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 120336Z - 120600Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may continue for a few more
hours across parts of northeastern North Carolina and southeast
Virginia. The threat should be too marginal for weather watch
issuance.

DISCUSSION...An upper-level trough is currently moving through the
southern Appalachians according to water vapor imagery. Ahead of the
trough, the RAP is analyzing a 60 to 70 knot low-level jet from
eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia. Thunderstorms are
developing to the west of the low-level jet in a strongly sheared
environment, where 0-6 km shear is 50 to 60 knots and 0-3 km
storm-relative helicity is around 350 m2/s2, according to the
Raleigh WSR-88D VWP. This should support an isolated tornado threat
with low-topped supercells. An isolated wind-damage threat will also
be possible. However, the storms will continue to move northeastward
toward the coast where instability is considerably weaker. The
boundary layer will also continue to cool contributing to a more
stable airmass. This should result in a severe threat becoming more
marginal with time.

..Broyles/Thompson.. 04/12/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

LAT...LON   36957584 37187643 36857723 36257799 35827838 35587837
            35397817 35307780 35397698 35757626 36067583 36437566
            36957584 

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