ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 151852 SPC MCD 151852 TXZ000-OKZ000-151945- Mesoscale Discussion 0440 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Areas affected...Northwest Texas into the Permian Basin Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 151852Z - 151945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms are expected to develop between 1930Z and 2030Z across northwest Texas and vicinity. DISCUSSION...Extensive mid and upper-level cloud cover has limited heating across northwest Texas for much of the day. However, south of these thicker clouds, more substantial heating has occurred with temperatures in the mid-to-upper 80s in the Concho Valley. Low-level moisture advection also continues across the area with more rich moisture arriving earlier this afternoon. This, combined with weak cooling aloft, will lead to additional destabilization through the afternoon. Satellite indicates the environment remains capped, but SPC mesoanalysis shows inhibition starting to weaken, a trend which will continue over the next 1 to 2 hours. The first wave of ascent can be seen on water vapor approaching the New Mexico/Texas border. As this overspreads the dryline, localized breaching of the CAP should be sufficient for storm development where temperatures have warmed in to the mid to upper 80s. This timing matches preferred 12Z CAM guidance (NSSL MPAS) and the 17Z WoFS. Moderate to strong instability combined with 60+ knots of effective shear will support supercells, with an initial threat for large hail (up to baseball size) and severe wind gusts (up to 75 mph). However, by later this evening, the tornado threat will increase as the low-level jet intensifies and STP values increase to 2 to 3 (per 17Z WoFS). A tornado watch will be needed in the next 1 to 2 hours. ..Bentley/Smith.. 04/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 34539958 34580005 34100087 33430152 32900168 31600179 31090145 31390010 32699919 33979886 34279907 34539958 NNNN