ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 160013 SPC MCD 160013 NEZ000-KSZ000-160245- Mesoscale Discussion 0448 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0713 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Areas affected...parts of western/central Kansas into south central Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 160013Z - 160245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Rapid thunderstorm development and intensification appears probable at some point this evening, most likely by 10 PM-Midnight, but perhaps an hour or two earlier. Once storms form, a few supercells are likely posing a risk for large hail and tornadoes, a couple of which could become strong. Trends are closely being monitored for a watch issuance, which seems likely at some point, though timing remains a bit unclear. DISCUSSION...A significant mid-level trough and embedded low are in the process of overspreading the the southern Rockies, with the leading edge of stronger mid-level height falls beginning to impact the high plains from the Texas Panhandle through the Black Hills vicinity. As intensifying southwesterly mid-level flow (in excess of 90 kt around 500 mb) noses across the Texas Panhandle vicinity through 02-04Z, strengthening mid/upper forcing for ascent likely will increasingly interact with a retreating dryline across western Kansas. As boundary-layer moisture, characterized by dew points increasing as high as the lower/mid 60s, advects westward beneath steepening lapse rates aided by cooling aloft, forecast soundings suggest mixed-layer CAPE may increase in excess of 2000 J/kg within at least a narrow corridor. By mid to late evening, it appears that this will roughly become focused along an axis from near Dodge City KS into areas west of Kearney NE. Some increase in high based convective development is already evident to the west of the dryline across the Texas Panhandle into western Kansas. While guidance has generally been suggestive that more substantive convective development and thunderstorm initiation may not commence until closer to the 03-05Z time frame, it is not certain that this will not occur sooner. Of primary concern, once storms initiate, intensification may be rapid and include at least one or two supercells with potential to produce strong tornadoes, as boundary-layer moistening and destabilization coincide with enlarging clockwise-curved hodographs beneath southerly 850 mb flow strengthening in excess of 50 kt. ..Kerr/Thompson.. 04/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 37830081 39880027 40579936 39959859 37869899 37019987 37090065 37830081 NNNN