ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 160429 SPC MCD 160429 NEZ000-KSZ000-160630- Mesoscale Discussion 0451 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Areas affected...parts of western and central Kansas and adjacent south central Nebraska Concerning...Tornado Watch 113... Valid 160429Z - 160630Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 113 continues. SUMMARY...An increasing risk for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes appears probable with an intensifying line of thunderstorms across western into central Kansas and adjacent south central Nebraska through 1-2 AM CDT. DISCUSSION...A strong cyclonic upper jet streak continues to nose across the southern Rockies through the south central high plains, with latest Rapid Refresh suggesting speeds now in the process of strengthening in excess of 80 to 90+ kt across the Texas Panhandle through northwestern Oklahoma. Strongest mid-level cooling in the exit region of this feature (including 500 mb temperatures decreasing to -20 to -22c) is forecast to overspread the stalling dryline across western Kansas through 05-07Z, contributing to weakening of lingering mid-level inhibition, further destabilization and more rapid thunderstorm intensification. Persistence of the ongoing isolated supercell now approaching the Hayes/Russell vicinity, within the narrow corridor of moderate potential instability ahead of the dryline, remains unclear, but further intensification of the linear structure along the dryline and merging cold fronts now west of Hill City into areas east of Garden City seems probable. Several low-level cyclonic meso circulations have already been noted in the presence of enlarged clockwise-curved low-level hodographs, beneath a 50-60 kt southerly 850 mb jet. With further weakening of inhibition and release of CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg, rapid thunderstorm intensification may be accompanied by an increasing risk for tornadoes and damaging wind gusts within the next few hours. ..Kerr.. 04/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 38790023 40399968 40359814 38919841 37509910 37190019 37730048 38790023 NNNN