ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 161903 
SPC MCD 161903 
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-162030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0461
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0203 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Areas affected...northeast Nebraska and northwest Iowa

Concerning...Tornado Watch 118...

Valid 161903Z - 162030Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 118 continues.

SUMMARY...The hail and tornado threat persists in tornado watch 118.

DISCUSSION...Convection has been confined mostly near the surface
low this morning and early afternoon beneath cool air aloft. Storms
which have formed in the vicinity of this boundary have had several
reports of tornadoes from what appears to be both mini-supercell and
non-supercell processes. The Pacific Front seems to have arrived
which should lead to an acceleration east this afternoon. A few
tornadoes may occur as the storms continue east given the veered
flow near the surface low. 

Across northwest Iowa, deepening cumulus has developed along the
dryline with the first thunderstorm in Carroll County. Low-level
flow has become mostly unidirectional on the KDMX VWP where winds
are more southerly. However, ahead of this storm, east-southeasterly
surface winds are present which should increase low-level SRH.
Therefore, if this storm continues to mature, it should pose a
threat for both large hail and a tornado or two.

..Bentley.. 04/16/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON   41479529 41439628 41509687 42329692 43099672 43379651
            43469499 42919432 42259422 41789440 41479529 

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