ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 162323 SPC MCD 162323 ILZ000-MOZ000-170130- Mesoscale Discussion 0467 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0623 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Areas affected...Parts of northeast and east central Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 119... Valid 162323Z - 170130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 119 continues. SUMMARY...The risk for widely scattered additional strong to severe thunderstorm development near/east of Columbia and Jefferson City into areas northwest of St. Louis may still not be negligible. However, it appears to be lowering and likely to diminish further with the loss of daytime heating. If current trends continue, the watch may be cancelled within the next hour or so. DISCUSSION...In the wake of an initial band of weakening convection which has spread east of the Mississippi River, a moistening low-level environment has contributed to a corridor of increasing potential instability across much of northeastern into east central and south central Missouri. This is ahead of a remnant dryline advancing across/east of the Kirksville, Columbia and Springfield vicinities. Renewed discrete thunderstorm development is ongoing as far south as areas to the southeast of Kirksville, with additional deepening convection noted near/west of Columbia and Jefferson City. Some convection allowing guidance, including the High Resolution Rapid Refresh suggest further intensification of the southern convective development might still be possible, before spreading near/to the northwest of the Greater St. Louis area through 00-02Z. Based on the Rapid Refresh forecast track of a weakening 500 mb jet core, and associated mid-level subsidence/warming, this would seem be the southern/southeastern limit for stronger convective development. However, based on latest water vapor imagery, the potential for new storms south of the Hannibal/Quincy area is becoming low. ..Kerr.. 04/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 39749206 40139168 40019060 39389045 38759092 38429160 38519240 39079239 39749206 NNNN