ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 171525 
SPC MCD 171525 
MIZ000-INZ000-171700-

Mesoscale Discussion 0470
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1025 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Areas affected...portions of Lower Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 171525Z - 171700Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential will increase over the next
couple of hours. Damaging gusts and hail will be the main hazards
with storms through the afternoon. A severe thunderstorm watch will
likely be need by 16-17z/12-1pm EDT.

DISCUSSION...Convection developing near Lake Michigan will shift
northeast and intensify over the next couple of hours. Surface
dewpoints have increased into the upper 50s to low 60s F as a warm
front continues to lift north across southern Lower Michigan.
Heating of this moistening airmass has aided in weak destabilization
late this morning, with around 500 J/kg MLCAPE noted in 15z
mesoanalysis. Effective shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt should
allow for organized cells or small line segments. Damaging gusts to
65 mph and hail to 1.5 inches in diameter will be possible with this
activity through the afternoon. Forecast hodographs and current
region VWP data indicated modestly enlarged and curved low-level
hodographs are present. However, instability will remain limited.
While a tornado can not be entirely ruled out, the prevailing risk
potential should remain confined to damaging gusts and hail. 

Severe potential will increase from south to northeast with time
over the next few hours, and severe thunderstorm watch will likely
be needed for portions of the MCD area.

..Leitman/Mosier.. 04/17/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON   43678462 43848399 43908303 43278264 42828261 42248307
            41838345 41738369 41768512 41788559 42068569 43398518
            43578478 43678462 

NNNN