ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 180825 
SPC MCD 180825 
MOZ000-KSZ000-181000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0479
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0325 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Areas affected...Portions of northeast KS into western/central MO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 124...

Valid 180825Z - 181000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 124
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe/damaging wind threat has increased with a small
bow moving eastward. An isolated hail threat also continues. Local
watch extension (in area) is possible.

DISCUSSION...Mainly supercell structures over northeast KS have
evolved into a small bowing complex over the past hour or so. This
convection is approaching the Kansas City metro in the near term,
and should pose a continued severe/damaging wind threat. Gusts up to
around 70 mph may occur given the well organized nature of the bow,
even as low-level static stability attempts to hinder convective
downdrafts from reaching the surface. Isolated severe hail also
appears possible, as strong reflectivity aloft associated with an
embedded supercell persists on the southern flank of the bow. Given
a current eastward motion around 35-40 kt, a local extension in area
for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 124 to include more of western/central
MO may be needed. Still, the eastward extent of the severe threat
remain somewhat uncertain, as less MUCAPE is present farther east.
However, greater DCAPE is present into central MO, which may support
a continued severe wind threat through the early morning hours.

..Gleason.. 04/18/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   39179527 39529496 39829484 39739388 39209253 38579348
            38619463 38909550 39179527 

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