ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 182102 
SPC MCD 182102 
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-182300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0485
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0402 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Areas affected...central/north-central into northeast Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 182102Z - 182300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for isolated to widely scattered supercells
will increase late this afternoon into the early evening.

DISCUSSION...A very unstable airmass has developed across central
and northeast Texas with low to mid 70s dewpoints and temperatures
in the 80s. MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg and effective shear around 25 to
30 knots will support organized storms including the potential for
supercells. However, storm coverage remains questionable due to
relatively weak forcing. In the near term, the best potential for
storm development is in central Texas where temperatures are hot
(near 90 F) and convergence is greater. Visible satellite shows
cumulus clustering in this region with at least one orphan anvil.

A severe thunderstorm watch may be needed if mature thunderstorm
development appears imminent. This region is south of the mid-level
speed max which is resulting in less shear. However, shear should be
sufficient for supercells, and given the extreme buoyancy, very
large hail (up to baseball size) is possible.

..Bentley/Mosier.. 04/18/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   30879829 30889900 31019945 31289954 31459926 31749898
            32579761 33509702 33829654 33909521 33569412 32699445
            31699573 30939711 30879829 

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