ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 182148 
SPC MCD 182148 
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-182315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0486
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0448 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Areas affected...Southeast MO...western KY...southern IL...southwest
IN

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 125...

Valid 182148Z - 182315Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 125
continues.

SUMMARY...A short-term threat for isolated severe hail/wind will
continue into early evening, with additional storms expected later
tonight. New watch issuance will become increasingly likely with
time this evening, though timing will be influenced by evolution of
ongoing storms on the southeast edge of WW 125.

DISCUSSION...A small cluster of storms, including a robust
supercell, has intensified this afternoon across far southeast MO
into southern IL, within a moderately unstable and weakly capped
environment. Modestly veering winds with height are supporting
effective shear of 30-40 kt across the region, supporting continued
supercell potential with any mature storms, with an attendant threat
of severe hail and wind. 

With generally nebulous large-scale ascent expected in the near
term, storm coverage may remain somewhat isolated into early
evening, with additional storms expected to move into the area later
tonight. WW 125 has been locally extended to cover the short-term
threat into southern IL. New watch issuance will become increasingly
likely later tonight as storm coverage increases from the west,
though timing of a new watch will be influenced by the evolution of
ongoing storms across southern IL, and whether they can persist into
parts of western KY and southwest IN.

..Dean/Guyer.. 04/18/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   36538981 37848949 38348914 38858796 38778747 38458714
            37738728 36838821 36638876 36608910 36538981 

NNNN