ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 201845 SPC MCD 201845 NCZ000-SCZ000-202045- Mesoscale Discussion 0500 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024 Areas affected...Northern South Carolina into southern North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 201845Z - 202045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is anticipated within the next hour. A few strong/severe cells, including the potential for a supercell or two, will pose a severe hail/wind threat to parts of the Carolinas this afternoon and evening. This threat should remain fairly localized; watch issuance is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...Steady growth of multiple cumulus congestus has been noted in GOES imagery over the past 30-60 minutes along a cold front and in the vicinity of a weak surface low across parts of the Carolinas. Glaciation is noted in a few of the deeper towers, suggesting that thunderstorm initiation is probable within the next hour or so. Discrete to semi-discrete cells that emerge from within the growing cumulus field will likely propagate off the slow-moving cold front into an increasingly buoyant air mass downstream into the eastern Carolinas (where MLCAPE is increasing to around 1500 J/kg). Within the past hour regional VWPs sampled weak winds through the lowest few kilometers, but a nearly uni-directional wind profile with 40-50 knot flow between 5-6 km. This is yielding 0-6 km BWD values on the order of 30-40 knots with a wind profile favorable for splitting cells. Consequently, this environment appears supportive of supercells with an attendant large hail (0.75 to 1.25 inch in diameter) and severe wind risk. The hail risk might be regionally maximized across parts of NC to the north of a differential heating boundary where muted diurnal mixing is supporting higher buoyancy. Conversely, areas to the south of this boundary may see a higher damaging wind threat given steeper low-level lapse rates. Regardless, it remains unclear how many cells will emerge from the cumulus field and evolve into mature supercells given the weak forcing for ascent. Latest CAM guidance also suggests storm coverage may be limited, which lends credence to the idea that the overall severe threat should remain sufficiently localized to preclude the need for a watch. ..Moore/Goss.. 04/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP... LAT...LON 33607884 33637921 34248114 34508152 34848145 35258111 35438081 35598018 35497859 35367780 35217705 34747706 34457730 34257759 33957784 33837798 33797836 33677863 33607884 NNNN