ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 261433 
SPC MCD 261433 
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-261700-

Mesoscale Discussion 0525
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0933 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Areas affected...central northeast Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 261433Z - 261700Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered storms are likely to form throughout the day,
and some are likely to become severe with tornado and large hail
potential. A watch may be needed by midday.

DISCUSSION...The morning FWD sounding shows a deep moist layer early
this morning, with 50 kt winds below 850 mb resulting in strong
low-level shear. Satellite imagery shows broken to overcast
conditions over much of central TX, with scattered to broken over
much of northern TX, leading to areas of heating.

The very moist air mass is already aiding early development of
storms between Austin and Stephenville, and indications are that
this activity will gradually increase during the day beneath a
persistent low-level jet. This will lead to a long duration of
moist, unstable and sheared environment, with a few supercells
likely within the developing cluster of warm sector storms, leading
to a developing tornado risk as the activity spreads toward
northeast TX.

..Jewell/Hart.. 04/26/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   31109646 31039777 31339853 31749866 32329848 32719829
            33129802 33729636 33949543 33859483 33749425 33609404
            33349396 32859407 32099463 31799507 31109646 

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