ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 272217 
SPC MCD 272217 
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-272315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0547
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0517 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Areas affected...Southeastern Iowa...Northwestern Illinois...and far
Northern Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 272217Z - 272315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe risk increasing. Watch likely to be issued within
the next hour.

DISCUSSION...Storm coverage has increased along the frontal boundary
extending through central Iowa to areas just north of the
Wisconsin/Illinois border. Air mass destabilization ahead of WW147
has yielded MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg and modest deep layer
shear. VAD profiles from DMX depict a cyclonic curved hodograph with
SFC to 1km shear profiles with 200 m2/s2. Surface vorticity is
likely maximized further along the boundary, where thunderstorms
have been developing.

..Thornton/Smith.. 04/27/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

LAT...LON   41749264 42139243 42489192 42729123 42909050 42789018
            42629000 42288989 41928994 40799052 40439070 40269079
            40249124 40279179 40589230 41099252 41399259 41749264 

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