ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 280532 
SPC MCD 280532 
ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-280700-

Mesoscale Discussion 0557
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Areas affected...northwest AR and eastern OK into north TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 280532Z - 280700Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A QLCS will continue to gradually shift east with time
overnight. A new watch or two will likely be needed in the next hour
for parts of northwest Arkansas, eastern Oklahoma and north Texas.

DISCUSSION...A mature QLCS extending from northeast OK into central
TX is gradually shifting east, though individual convective elements
within the line are moving more northeast. Most discrete supercells
ahead of the line earlier this evening have now merged with the
QLCS, though some potential still exists for an isolated pre-QLCS
supercell to develop from far north TX into southeast OK.  A strong
southerly low-level jet is contributing to enlarged, curved
hodographs and 0-1 km SRH around 200-400 m2/s2. This should continue
to support rotation/mesovortex development and tornado potential the
next several hours. Damaging wind to 70 mph also will be possible in
additional to tornado potential.

..Leitman/Thompson.. 04/28/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON   36489347 35049415 33279539 32339638 31979720 31809834
            31969896 33059792 34489579 36499457 36489347 

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