ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 282038 
SPC MCD 282038 
MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-282245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0562
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Areas affected...portions of eastern OK...western Arkansas and into
far southeast KS and southwest MO.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 282038Z - 282245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Weak showers may gradually deepen into clusters of strong
to severe storms late this afternoon. Uncertainty remains high as it
is unclear if the air mass can recover in the wake of earlier
storms. Trends will be monitored for a possible WW.

DISCUSSION...As of 2030 UTC, regional radar and satellite data
showed a few showers slowly deepening over parts of central and
eastern OK and northeast TX. In the wake of the early day MCS
lingering clouds have slowed diurnal heating with temperatures
stubbornly remaining in the upper 60s to low 70s F. Still, some
clearing has emerged and 1.25-1.4 in precipitable water values show
sufficient moisture for deep convection. Hi-res guidance shows these
showers may gradually deepen into several clusters of thunderstorms
across eastern OK over the next couple of hours as a subtle
upper-level trough moves in from the west. With 500-1000 J/kg of
MLCAPE potential available by 22-23z, a few stronger updrafts could
emerge. 35-45 kt of effective shear would favor storm organization,
though in the form of a mix of cellular and cluster elements.
Damaging gusts and isolated hail appear to be the most likely
threats should more robust storms develop. Still, a 30-40 kt LLJ
should enlarge low-level hodographs near sunset to support the risk
for a tornado or two. The primary uncertainty for this afternoon and
evening is the coverage and intensity of storms that develop. While
it remains unclear now, conditions are being monitored for a
possible watch.

..Lyons/Hart.. 04/28/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   33509512 33829634 34159670 34809659 35959618 37379548
            37639464 37599391 37259363 36909353 36269355 35059382
            33799406 33509512 

NNNN