ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 290321 
SPC MCD 290321 
MOZ000-ARZ000-290415-

Mesoscale Discussion 0567
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1021 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Areas affected...northern Arkansas into southern Missouri

Concerning...Tornado Watch 159...

Valid 290321Z - 290415Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 159 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat continues. Local watch extension past 04z
may be needed.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity continues across portions of
Missouri and Arkansas. Mesoanalysis indicates surface based
instability has become limited, though MLCAPE around 500-1,000 J/kg
continues to advect in from the southeast. This activity is also
located along the edge of the axis of a 40 kt low-level jet, which
is providing ample shear for maintaining an organized severe threat.
As such, a threat of damaging winds may persist through the short
term.  

Further south, a supercell has tracked from the OK/AR border into
western AR and continues to maintain organization with periods of
increase in rotation strength. WW159 may need to be expanded in time
and spatial extent to account for potential risk with this storm and
for additional transient supercell activity across northern Arkansas
that may move into southern Missouri.

..Thornton/Smith.. 04/29/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   36689327 37019308 37319289 37429242 37239182 37049165
            36519156 36059267 35789312 35639333 35659370 35939371
            36689327 

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