ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 021054 
SPC MCD 021054 
LAZ000-TXZ000-021230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0603
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0554 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024

Areas affected...southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 021054Z - 021230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms may locally produce gusty winds or
hail to near 1 inch over the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms will continue shifting
east/southeast the next few hours. A 30-40 kt southerly low-level
jet and embedded, convectively induced MCV is likely aiding in
continued thunderstorm organization amid moderate instability
(MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/kg). Sporadic, locally strong gusts are
possible, in additional to hail to near 1 inch, before storms move
offshore over the next couple of hours. Given the marginal nature of
the severe threat, and limited spatial/temporal extent of the
threat, a watch is not expected.

..Leitman/Edwards.. 05/02/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

LAT...LON   29919546 30179604 30349616 30649604 30969575 31019543
            30889419 30699327 30469286 30239269 29569291 29369357
            29469431 29919546 

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