ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 081358 
SPC MCD 081358 
ILZ000-MOZ000-081530-

Mesoscale Discussion 0694
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0858 AM CDT Wed May 08 2024

Areas affected...central to southeast MO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 202...

Valid 081358Z - 081530Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 202
continues.

SUMMARY...An intense elevated supercell is expected to persist into
midday, east-southeastward along the instability gradient from
central to southern Missouri, with very large hail as the primary
short-term threat. This storm and additional convective development
will necessitate downstream watch issuance in the late morning.

DISCUSSION...A large elevated supercell with a consistently strong
and deep circulation will likely persist east-southeast along the
tight instability gradient across southern MO. MRMS MESH values over
the past half hour have been suggestive of 2-2.5 inch hail in
diameter, with up to golf ball size recently reported.  While this
storm will remain elevated for the next couple hours, the downstream
boundary layer will destabilize, especially over the MS Valley and
across far southern MO along the northern edge of at least mid 60s
surface dew points. It is plausible that this specific supercell
could eventually impinge on the increasing MLCAPE plume. Additional
storms will likely form to its immediate south-southeast through
midday as the low-level warm advection regime shifts east. This
would result in a greater damaging wind and eventual tornado threat
as this process occurs, focused on south-central to southeast MO.

..Grams.. 05/08/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON   38719301 38609141 38169007 37758960 36978941 36608994
            36569173 36739344 37079453 38199382 38719301 

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